The forecast annual return for a US dollar 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over the next 10 to 15 years remains attractive at 6.4%, according to a recent report.

Even after a year of strong equity market gains, global asset return projections remain robust as the forces that drove volatility in recent years abate, finds J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, which provides a 10- to 15-year outlook for returns and risks across asset classes, and combines quantitative and qualitative insights from over 100 industry-leading portfolio managers, research analysts and strategists worldwide.

Although labour constraints weigh on the long-term growth outlook, AI adoption will provide a near-term boost to profits and a longer-term boost to productivity, according to the report, which also spotlights the opportunities to boost diversification through global equities and alternatives, particularly real assets.

Key findings from the report include:

• Resilience in markets despite slower growth – Despite a dip in growth projections due to changing labour market dynamics, asset return projections remain strong.
• Economic nationalism is a challenge, not a showstopper – Trade frictions are making headlines, but also forcing some markets to boost domestic investment, a clear silver lining to the impact of tariffs.
• Technology continues to drive the current bull market – Capital investment and technology spend continue to provide momentum for the broader market. Governments are stepping up, unleashing record stimulus and incentives.
• Artificial intelligence ( AI ) boom is at a critical juncture – Adoption is surging, and investment is massive. Investors should pivot their attention to who will be the eventual outperformers and underperformers of new technologies, making active management key.
• Equity strength, but currency matters – After two years of 20% gains followed by another 14% so far this year, US equity performance has been strong for USD-based investors. However, with the USD expected to weaken further, US investors may find renewed impetus to diversify internationally, while non-USD investors may need to revisit their foreign exchange hedging strategies.
• Diversification isn’t optional, it’s essential – Shifting policies and higher investment mean more volatile inflation. This demands smarter portfolios that use alternatives and real assets for resilience and returns. Manager selection is key to navigating this current environment of disruptive change.

The report also outlines the asset class return assumptions for equities, fixed income and alternatives.

Equities

US large-cap equities are expected to return 6.7%, holding steady from last year as the move from tech adoption to tech deployment broadens to other sectors and concerns over index concentration are expected to dissipate. The US looks likely to remain the global leader in technology origination.

Global equities are projected to return 7% ( USD ), with non-US markets presenting more attractive cyclical starting points and benefiting from currency appreciation.

Asia ex-Japan equities are expected to return 7.9% ( USD ), while Japanese equities are expected to return 8.8% ( USD ), supported by ongoing shareholder reforms and Japan’s shift to a new economic regime.

Fixed Income

US intermediate treasuries are expected to return 4%, while long treasuries are expected to return 4.9%.

US investment-grade credit is forecast to return 5.2%, with spreads tightening due to a shortening of the maturity of debt issuance.

US high-yield credit is expected to return 6.1%, with a fair value spread of 475 basis points, driven by higher credit quality.

Alternatives

For private equity, the return assumption for private equity is 10.2%, reflecting a slight increase due to a more favourable exit environment and higher growth opportunities in technology and AI.

For real estate, US core real estate is expected to return 8.2%, driven by attractive entry points and higher yields. Asia-Pacific core real estate is forecast to return 8.4%, benefitting from a potential weaker dollar.

For infrastructure, global core infrastructure is projected to return 6.5%, reflecting the essential nature of the services provided by this asset class through a shifting trade policy environment.

For commodities, the return assumption for broad basket commodities remains at 4.6%, with the energy transition and geopolitical risks influencing the outlook. Gold is expected to return 5.5%, an increase from last year at 4.5%.

For timberland, global timberland is expected to return 6.3%, reflecting an increase from last year at 5.3%.

“Our research shows that adding alternatives to a portfolio can meaningfully improve outcomes, increasing potential returns, lowering volatility and delivering a higher Sharpe ratio,” says Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “For instance, investors embracing a ‘60/40+’ portfolio, which includes a 30% allocation to diversified alternatives, see the projected return jump to 6.9% and the Sharpe ratio increase by 25% over the simple 60/40 approach.”

Tai Hui, the asset manager’s chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific, adds: “Despite a strong rally in risk assets year to date, we continue to see solid long-term return opportunities across public markets, supported by resilient corporate profitability and rapid technological innovation.

“One of the most significant developments is the wave of shareholder reforms taking place in East Asia. In markets such as Japan, China and Korea, companies are advancing governance standards, increasing share buybacks and enhancing transparency – steps that are fundamentally improving capital returns and better aligning corporate priorities with shareholder interests.”